Posted: August 31st, 2007 | Author: saldarji | Filed under: stuff | No Comments »
In the 80s, Casio sold digital watches at convenience and drug stores, and as a result, revolutionized the channel strategy for the entire industry. Since then, a gradual shift has taken place. Casio no longer sells a lot of their models here in the US. A lot of convenience stores no longer carry watches. Furthermore, it is extremely difficult to find non-luxury automatic watches in the US. As far as I can tell, Seiko doesn’t sell automatic watches in the U.S. anymore.
After looking around, it turns out that the watch market is thriving online and it is now an international business. If you go onto Ebay, you can find thousands of watches that are shipped from Singapore and Hong Kong. These sellers take watches manufactured for the Asian market and ship overseas to the US.
I was looking for an automatic watch since my old one ran out of batteries, and decided to order one off of Ebay. So, I am eagerly awaiting my Seiko 5. I ordered a Seiko SNK809k1. That model is apparently based off of a 7S26a movement, which is tunable.
Overall, I paid about half of what I would pay (including shipping) for a comparable watch from a fashion watch brand like Fossil, Skagen, Swatch, etc. On top of that, I get a neat watch with an automatic movement.
Posted: August 29th, 2007 | Author: saldarji | Filed under: business | No Comments »
The rumor-mongers broadcasters over at CNBC have been talking a lot about interest rates and inflation. The entire financial world is waiting for the results of the next FOMC meeting on September 18th.
The importance of the unemployment numbers should not be overlooked though. Unemployment numbers will be released on September 7th.
As you can see from the graph, unemployment has been declining and has been a positive attribute of our economy.
In my opinion, if there is a rapid uptick in unemployment, it could be a nightmare scenario. It will magnify the housing sector and mortgage industry problems, with more people unable to make payments and much higher rates of foreclosure. I believe that our economy is much more susceptible to shocks in household income and unemployment because people have extended themselves with their homes and lines of credit.
In this bear scenario, the problems would not remain confined to the subprime mortgage market. It could spread quickly into the regular mortgage market. Relatively unaffected markets, such as the jumbo mortgage market or geographic regions like New York City, could see a downward swing in the next year.
Needless to say, I think the Fed economists are hoping that unemployment remains benign.
Posted: August 27th, 2007 | Author: saldarji | Filed under: stuff | No Comments »
So the big news is that I have found an apartment to live in…in Massachusetts! I’ll be moving back to Boston, where I spent 7 years. I have already lived in Brookline, Kenmore Square, Somerville and Jamaica Plain (JP). This time, I’m moving to the Wollaston Beach area of Quincy.
View Larger Map
Now that I have a place lined up, I need to find a way to transport all my stuff on October 1, my move date. It is going to be quite an adventure!
Posted: August 23rd, 2007 | Author: saldarji | Filed under: stuff, travel | No Comments »
I was supposed to be on a flight from Northwest Arkansas (XNA) to Chicago (ORD) today. I gathered from rumors and first-hand accounts that a tornado touched down pretty close to O’Hare. So I am actually pretty happy that my flight got canceled and that I don’t have to experience severe wind shear and a nerve-wrecking descent.
I heard from Tim Daneliuk, a co-worker who lives in Chicago, that our company actually called him to see if he was OK. He lives in the Chicago area, fairly close to O’Hare, so it is a pretty nice thing for the company to do.
I book all my flights though our company travel engine. They must have done a query against the travel database, because I was sent an email asking me to respond with my status! Once I let them know that I am safe, they responded with a kind message.
I’m not sure if it is something that my company just started, but it is a pretty nice thing for them to do. They didn’t call me when the bridge collapsed near my apartment, so it must either be a recent thing or they are smart enough to know that I wasn’t in Minneapolis at the time. I wonder how many other companies do something like this.
Please note that I did deviate from my normal cynicism and sarcasm for this post.
Posted: August 21st, 2007 | Author: saldarji | Filed under: stuff | 3 Comments »
Novell has an interesting culture. Because we have a large campus in Provo, and because of our long history in Utah, a lot of people at Novell are either Mormon or former church members. One of my coworkers shared some church terminology that I think is interesting and useful.
The first extremely useful word is “
trunky.”
Homesick. Refers to the act of sitting on one’s packed trunk, eagerly looking forward to the day when one’s mission will end.
Another word that can be used to refer to someone is “
bucket.” My co-worker said that is a good term to use when referring to someone who is of little use. However, the reference I found online defines it as:
Calgary Canada Mission slang for a lazy missionary who habitually breaks the rules. Derivation uncertain.
I have to give an accolade to William Shunn, sci-fi author, who has posted a
dictionary of Mormonspeak. I think it may come in handy while I work at Novell. Not that I know what a
mission is like, but I guess that my consulting gig at Wal-Mart probably resembles one in a few respects. We’re not in Bentonville to plant a church, but we are here to plant the seeds of Open Source. Let’s just hope it doesn’t turn into the “two best years of my life.” (That’s how many Mormons refer to their mission…read the dictionary.)
Posted: August 19th, 2007 | Author: saldarji | Filed under: business | No Comments »
As I posted in my last post, the speculation about E*Trade’s mortgage portfolio was ridiculous and overblown. E*Trade confirmed my assumptions when they submitted their Supplemental Portfolio Disclosure [.pdf] to the SEC. The disclosure reiterates that they have minimal exposure to the subprime market, and a very high-quality mortgage portfolio.
At one point last week, E*Trade’s stock dipped down to $9.92 per share, below their $10 dollar book value. The stock now stands at $14.50, which is off of the $26.08 52-week high. In my opinion, the market was spooked by rumors, and there is no substantive reason the stock price should be depressed. At one point, there was message board postings that people were having a hard time withdrawing funds!
I’m predicting that the stock should recover to a fair valuation soon. Consequently, I think it is a great value play. Of course, I own E*Trade shares, so I guess I am biased.
Posted: August 15th, 2007 | Author: saldarji | Filed under: business | No Comments »
As I have mentioned before, I am very bullish on E*Trade (ETFC) and have purchased shares. However, despite my optimism, they have gotten pounded in the market. Their stock price has declined from 22 dollars to 14 dollars this year.
I believe that the fears are completely unfounded and that right now people are trading on emotion. The initial decline was due to fears that E*Trade has above-average exposure to sub-prime mortgages. Atleast, this is the story in the WSJ by Herb Greenberg. Apparently a “subprime” mention on CNBC today sent the stock down over $1.25 during trading hours today. This story today elaborates on the pessimism.
Here is a paragraph from that article:
Citigroup analyst Prashant Bhatia lowered his 2008 and 2009 earnings estimates on E*Trade on Monday. He also lowered his price target from $23 to $19, saying the brokerage and financial services company has not provided adequate information on the “composition, source and quality of its $28 billion mortgage portfolio.”
Let me address Mr. Bhatia with a quote from the most recent 10Q filing.
In recent months, there has been considerable attention in the financial media regarding rising delinquencies and default rates in the sub-prime(Defined as borrowers with FICO scores less than 620 at the time of origination.) lending market. As a general matter, we do not originate or purchase sub-prime loans to hold on our balance sheet; however, in the normal course of purchasing large pools of real estate loans, we invariably end up acquiring a de minimis amount of these loans. As of June 30, 2007, sub-prime loans represented less than one-fifth of one percent of our total loan portfolio.
They also break out the their first-lien mortgages ($15.667B) from their
HELOCs ($12.413B). Obviously, we’d all love to have more information on the quality of those loans, but the above information satisfies me that they do not have drastic sub-prime exposure.
I believe that what some analysts fail to realize is that E*Trade is no longer just a discount broker. And they are not just an electronic bank either. They have a business model where they are a little bit of both. What both of those models have in common is that they make money off of “float”. They need to invest their assets in order to make money.
Not all analysts are negative.
Deutsche bank analyst Matthew Fischer said E*Trade’s loan portfolio appears “healthy,” because net charge-offs and loans during the second quarter declined sequentially by one basis point, while regional banks saw an average increase of seven basis points in their net charge-offs.
I believe that the “subprime slime” fears around E*Trade are overblown and that the stock should recover in the coming months and years.
Posted: August 14th, 2007 | Author: saldarji | Filed under: sports, stuff | 1 Comment »
I don’t remember how I heard about Stephon Marbury. Tracey must have told me about him. I definitely don’t watch a lot of basketball.
Anyways, I read online that he was selling 15 dollar shoes (that is not a typo) through a retail chain called Steve and Barry. This is interesting because I think it is a concerted effort to bring higher fashion and quality clothing at a deep discount to consumers. It is one part fast fashion and one part frugal fashion.
My first impression of Steve and Barry’s was that it was very similar to Old Navy in look and feel. The store I went to was much larger than most discount retail stores. It was the size of a full mall anchor store. They had a really good selection of T-shirts and sports apparel, which reflects their roots. My impression is that their prices are much better than what you would pay for lesser quality goods at Old Navy. There is a great article about Steve and Barry’s in Business Week.
I bought a few pairs of shorts and a few polo shirts there. I also picked up a pair of Starbury Cyclones in Grey. I will review them after I have worn them for a few weeks. But so far, I think they are excellent quality and they are very comfortable. They also look extremely sharp. My only complaint is that some of the models that are on the Starbury website weren’t available in the store. I will check back to see if they have them in before Christmas.
Posted: August 10th, 2007 | Author: saldarji | Filed under: stuff | No Comments »
I went with my Dad to negotiate for a brand new Honda Accord last weekend. I realized that it is about a million times easier to negotiate for someone else’s car than to negotiate for your own car. I am guessing that is why arbitration experts and professional negotiators get paid so much.
I wasn’t able to get to a good enough price for my father and we ended up leaving the dealership disappointed. They did throw quite a few car salesman tricks at us, such as making FINAL offers in red marker, using their own intermediary to negotiate, etc. If you’ve never read it, you must go read Confessions of a Car Salesman at Edmunds. It is fascinating reading.
And while I am thinking about Honda Accords, here is a picture of an unfortunate one I saw in Bentonville. The owner didn’t even have time to get new tags before it was rear ended! Aaron Gresko and Jared Hudson, my coworkers, get the credit for spotting this in the parking lot. I’m sure someone can make an interesting slide out of it for their client. Please let me know if you think of any good captions.
Update: Jared uploaded a detailed picture of the car here.
Posted: August 7th, 2007 | Author: saldarji | Filed under: business, technology | 1 Comment »
I am interested in China’s situation and their place in the “Smile Curve”. There is a good introduction to the concept here. In a nutshell, value is created during the R&D and the marketing of products. There is very little value extracted in the middle parts of the product development lifecycle. This is illustrated in the graph below.
If this conjecture is true, it means that China should start to think about ways to derive more value from their position in the chain. China could start moving out to the ends of the value chains to capture more share.
A value-chain analysis of my industry, IT consulting, would yield some interesting results. Organizations generally have skill sets that focus on operations and change management. Most enterprises don’t have armies of C coders or configuration, which I consider to be low-level/granular low-k IT skills. With my experience to date in IT consulting, I believe that most organizations do not employ employees who are skilled at Strategy, IT Portfolio Management, or Program Management. (There are exceptions to this generalization of course, most notably, Google.)
Given this spectrum of IT skills, it leads us to conclude that the value-added activities for IT Consulting are either at the low end or the very high end.
I think that this is especially true of open source, where there is a shortage of open source coding talent. Because it is a new way of working, there is a considerable need for strategy and program management in most enterprises.
